Arbitrage
Intra-Market Arbitrage
Buying both sides of a binary when the best-ask YES and NO sum to under $1.00 locks in a risk-defined edge.
Detailed explanation
Intra-market arbitrage is the practice of exploiting price inefficiencies within a single Kalshi market by purchasing both YES and NO sides when their best-ask prices sum to less than $1.00. The arbitrage relies on the fact that a binary contract must settle to $1.00 for the winning side, creating a guaranteed edge equal to the remaining gap to $1.00 after fees. This edge is limited by the contract’s fee and by price sensitivity as the market moves toward settlement.
Worked example
Example: In a Kalshi binary, YES is offered at 42¢ and NO at 56¢. The sum is 98¢, leaving a 2¢ edge to $1.00. If you buy 1 YES contract at 0.42 and 1 NO contract at 0.56, you’ve locked in a $0.02 risk-defined profit before fees. Kalshi’s per-contract fee reduces this edge slightly, but a favorable spread remains.
FAQ
- What is the core idea of intra-market arbitrage on Kalshi?
- Buy both sides of a binary when YES_ask + NO_ask < $1.00 to lock in the remaining cents as edge, before fees.
- Are there risks or limits to this strategy?
- Yes. Fees, slippage, partial fills, and near-settlement timing can erode edge; price movements and state limits also apply.
See Intra-Market Arbitrage on a live Kalshi market
KalshiArb scans every open Kalshi market for arbitrage edges where YES + NO < $1.00. Plug in your Kalshi API key and start receiving alerts in under 5 minutes.
Related terms
- Binary ArbitrageExploiting a price gap where YES + NO best asks < $1.00 by buying both sides.
- EdgeThe guaranteed profit margin when YES and NO prices sum to under $1.00 on a Kalshi binary.
- Guaranteed EdgeBuying both YES and NO when their bests sum to under $1 locks in a risk-defined profit (edge) at settlement.
- Risk-Free ArbitrageA named edge where buying both YES and NO across a Kalshi binary can lock profit if the best asks sum to less than $1.00 (not truly risk-free in practice).