Arbitrage
Edge
The guaranteed profit margin when YES and NO prices sum to under $1.00 on a Kalshi binary.
Detailed explanation
Edge is the arbitrage opportunity created when the best-ask prices for YES and NO in a Kalshi binary contract (or all child YES contracts under an event ticker) together cost less than $1.00. In that case, buying both sides locks in a risk-defined profit equal to the difference between $1.00 and the combined price, minus the trading fees. Edge can arise in intra-market pairs (YES + NO) or across mutually exclusive child markets within the same event ticker (combinatorial edge). The size of the edge is the gap to $1.00, and is eroded by fees and any slippage that occurs on fills.
Worked example
If YES is priced at 42¢ and NO at 56¢, the sum is 98¢. Buying both sides costs 98¢, delivering $1.00 if YES resolves true and NO resolves false, for a 2¢ edge before fees. After the per-contract fee (which applies to both legs), the net edge decreases but remains a calculable, finite profit opportunity, assuming fills execute as expected.
FAQ
- What does 'edge' mean in Kalshi trading?
- Edge is the guaranteed profit available when the sum of the best-ask prices for YES and NO is less than $1.00, allowing a trader to buy both sides and lock profit.
- How is edge calculated?
- Edge equals $1.00 minus the sum of the best-ask prices for YES and NO (or the complete set of child YES contracts in a combinatorial case), minus fees and slippage.
See Edge on a live Kalshi market
KalshiArb scans every open Kalshi market for arbitrage edges where YES + NO < $1.00. Plug in your Kalshi API key and start receiving alerts in under 5 minutes.
Related terms
- Intra-Market ArbitrageBuying both sides of a binary when the best-ask YES and NO sum to under $1.00 locks in a risk-defined edge.
- Binary ArbitrageExploiting a price gap where YES + NO best asks < $1.00 by buying both sides.
- Guaranteed EdgeBuying both YES and NO when their bests sum to under $1 locks in a risk-defined profit (edge) at settlement.
- Risk-Free ArbitrageA named edge where buying both YES and NO across a Kalshi binary can lock profit if the best asks sum to less than $1.00 (not truly risk-free in practice).