Arbitrage
Guaranteed Edge
Buying both YES and NO when their bests sum to under $1 locks in a risk-defined profit (edge) at settlement.
Detailed explanation
A guaranteed edge is an intra-market arbitrage opportunity on Kalshi where the best-ask YES plus best-ask NO prices are less than $1.00. By purchasing both legs, you lock in the difference between $1 and the combined price, effectively securing a risk-defined profit at settlement minus the per-contract fee. This relies on the market’s bid/ask structure being mispriced relative to the $1 settlement value.
In practical terms, the edge is the guaranteed cents you capture after accounting for Kalshi’s fee curve and any residual slippage or partial fills. It’s a feature of binary markets where the two sides do not sum to a full dollar, creating a no-lose spread as long as the prices stay within the feasible range until settlement. Use this pattern carefully, mindful of resolution timing, fee impact, and state-of-employment restrictions that may affect liquidity or eligibility.
Worked example
Example: YES at 42¢ and NO at 56¢ on the same market. Sum = 98¢. Buy YES at 42¢ and NO at 56¢. If settled true, you receive $1.00 for YES and $0.00 for NO, locking a 2¢ edge per contract after paying 98¢ total, minus fees.
FAQ
- What is a guaranteed edge in Kalshi markets?
- It's when the best YES and NO prices sum to less than $1. By buying both sides, you lock in a small, risk-defined profit (edge) at settlement, minus fees.
- When does the edge disappear?
- If the YES and NO bids rise toward $1 or converge such that their sum reaches $1, the guaranteed profit disappears and risk returns to baseline.
- What risks should I consider with guaranteed edge?
- Fees, partial fills, slippage, API outages, and settlement-rule disputes can reduce or eliminate the edge; state restrictions may affect liquidity.
See Guaranteed Edge on a live Kalshi market
KalshiArb scans every open Kalshi market for arbitrage edges where YES + NO < $1.00. Plug in your Kalshi API key and start receiving alerts in under 5 minutes.
Related terms
- Intra-Market ArbitrageBuying both sides of a binary when the best-ask YES and NO sum to under $1.00 locks in a risk-defined edge.
- Binary ArbitrageExploiting a price gap where YES + NO best asks < $1.00 by buying both sides.
- EdgeThe guaranteed profit margin when YES and NO prices sum to under $1.00 on a Kalshi binary.
- Risk-Free ArbitrageA named edge where buying both YES and NO across a Kalshi binary can lock profit if the best asks sum to less than $1.00 (not truly risk-free in practice).