Risk disclosure

Trading event contracts on Kalshi involves the risk of loss. Even arbitrage trades — where the math at displayed prices implies a guaranteed payout — carry execution and venue risk that can erode or eliminate the edge. This document is not exhaustive; read Kalshi's own risk disclosures before you trade.

Execution risk

Arbitrage requires both legs to fill at quoted prices. Order books on Kalshi are not infinitely deep. If the second leg slips, partially fills, or gets cancelled, you can end up holding a directional position rather than a hedged one. The Autonomous Agent submits both legs as a batched request to minimise this — it is not eliminated.

Settlement risk

Kalshi event contracts settle at $0 or $1 based on the contract's rules and an independent source of truth. Edge cases (ambiguous outcomes, source-of-truth disputes, rule disputes) can delay settlement or change the expected payout. Read every contract's rules document before holding to settlement.

Counterparty + custody risk

Funds on Kalshi are held by KalshiEX LLC, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. Customer funds are held in segregated accounts per CFTC rules, but KalshiArb cannot guarantee the integrity of the venue. KalshiArb never holds your funds; you keep your balance on Kalshi and your API key under your control.

Geographic restrictions

Some Kalshi contracts are restricted in some U.S. states. Trading them while ineligible could violate state law. The Autonomous Agent geo-fences against these restrictions, but you remain responsible for your eligibility. If in doubt, do not trade.

Tax

Profits on Kalshi event contracts are taxable in the U.S. KalshiArb does not provide tax reporting. Track your trades and consult a tax professional.

No advice

Nothing on KalshiArb is financial, legal, investment, or tax advice. Information is for general use only. Do your own research and trade at your own risk.